brynjolfsson and mcafee
Why Artificial Intelligence Will Not Outsmart Complex Knowledge Work - Lene Pettersen, 2018
Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to computer systems that perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision making or translation. More recently, AI has often revolved around the use of algorithms. An algorithm is a set of instructions that a computer can execute. Owing to such advanced technologies, farmers today can get watering assistance to make production more efficient; flu epidemics can be predicted, thereby enabling better medical preparation; intelligent surgical robotics can assist doctors; and, in Norway, a more balanced gender representation in the public media landscape is possible when AI tracks how much airtime is given to females on the Norwegian news programme'Dagsnytt 18'. These are merely a few examples of areas that benefit from AI and robot technology. Other less positive examples of AI include efforts to build applications, such as a'gaydar', which is an algorithm that researchers claim will reveal a person's sexual orientation; facial recognition systems that are biased towards white males, like Google's deep-learning algorithm, which consequently classified a picture of a black woman as a gorilla; or China's social credit system, whereby the Chinese government uses AI and big data as a tool to socially control its citizens.
Minds and Machines
A few months ago, Andy McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson published Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future, - their third book on the impact of the 21st century digital revolution on the economy and society, - following the publication of The Second Machine Age in 2014 and Race Against the Machine in 2011. Brynjolfsson and McAfee are professor and research scientist respectively at MIT's Sloan School of Management, as well as co-Directors of MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy. The book is organized into three sections, each focused on a major trend that's reshaping the business world: the rapidly expanding capabilities of machines; the emergence of large, asset-light platform companies; and the ability to now leverage the knowledge, expertise and enthusiasm of the crowd. These three trends are combining into a triple revolution, causing companies to rethink the balance between minds and machines; between products and platforms; and between the core and the crowd. I cannot possible do justice to all three trends in one blog, so let me summarize the key themes of the Mind and Machine section, which I found to be an excellent explanation of the current state of AI.
Interesting Times: Business Change In An Era Of Tech Disruption
When reflecting on epochs in world history, historians often make reference to an ancient Chinese curse – "May you live in interesting times!" Today, we live in a time characterized by rapid technology transformation, and resulting social, political, and economic disruption. In its wake, few institutions have remained untouched. Like the Industrial Revolution of the early 19th century, impactful change of this magnitude generally occurs but once a century, and is the culmination of a convergence of trends – in our time these trends include globalization, the emergence of the Internet, Big Data, artificial intelligence (AI), and ubiquitous computing power. The results can be dislocation, upheaval, opportunity, and inequality.
How Technology Is Destroying Jobs
Given his calm and reasoned academic demeanor, it is easy to miss just how provocative Erik Brynjolfsson's contention really is. Brynjolfsson, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and his collaborator and coauthor Andrew McAfee have been arguing for the last year and a half that impressive advances in computer technology--from improved industrial robotics to automated translation services--are largely behind the sluggish employment growth of the last 10 to 15 years. Even more ominous for workers, the MIT academics foresee dismal prospects for many types of jobs as these powerful new technologies are increasingly adopted not only in manufacturing, clerical, and retail work but in professions such as law, financial services, education, and medicine. That robots, automation, and software can replace people might seem obvious to anyone who's worked in automotive manufacturing or as a travel agent. But Brynjolfsson and McAfee's claim is more troubling and controversial. They believe that rapid technological change has been destroying jobs faster than it is creating them, contributing to the stagnation of median income and the growth of inequality in the United States. And, they suspect, something similar is happening in other technologically advanced countries. Perhaps the most damning piece of evidence, according to Brynjolfsson, is a chart that only an economist could love.
AI Dangers
In January 2015, a host of prominent figures in high tech and science and experts in artificial intelligence (AI) published a piece called "Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: An Open Letter," calling for research on the societal impacts of AI. Unfortunately, the media grossly distorted and hyped the original formulation into doomsday scenarios. Nonetheless, some thinkers do warn of serious dangers posed by AI, tacitly invoking the notion of a Technological Singularity (first suggested by Good8) to ground their fears. According to this idea, computational machines will improve in competence at an exponential rate. They will reach the point where they correct their own defects and program themselves to produce artificial superintelligent agents that far surpass human capabilities in virtually every cognitive domain.
Amazon Go: We're All F*cked
If you haven't heard, Amazon just launched a promo for a storefront that sells meal kits and grocery basics with no checkout lines. It's based in Seattle and currently open to Amazon employees, with the public launch set for early 2017. While Amazon hasn't explained their "Just Walk Out" technology that powers the storefront, they do provide a video of the charming shopping experience that will leave you wishing your local grocery store was an Amazon Go. Amazon Go is Amazon's attempt to grab a foothold in the grocery industry. Even with Amazon Pantry, Amazon only controls 1% of the $800 billion US market.
Our Automated Future
There are many accounts of the genesis of Watson. The most popular, which is not necessarily the most accurate--and this is the sort of problem that Watson himself often stumbled on--begins in 2004, at a steakhouse near Poughkeepsie. One evening, an I.B.M. executive named Charles Lickel was having dinner there when he noticed that the tables around him had suddenly emptied out. Instead of finishing their sirloins, his fellow-diners had rushed to the bar to watch "Jeopardy!" This was deep into Ken Jennings's seventy-four-game winning streak, and the crowd around the TV was rapt. Not long afterward, Lickel attended a brainstorming session in which participants were asked to come up with I.B.M.'s next "grand challenge." The firm, he suggested, should take on Jennings.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee: The jobs that AI can't replace - BBC News
At the heart of capitalism is the concept of creative destruction. And this phenomenon is turbocharged by technological progress. Innovations from the cotton gin to electricity to the computer have created dramatic changes in the way that we work and the jobs that are available. Current advances in robots and other digital technologies are stirring up anxiety among workers and in the media. There is a great deal of fear, for example, that robots will not only destroy existing jobs, but also be better at most or all of the tasks required in the future.
5-Step Solution to Trump's Greatest Dilemma: How to develop the technology agenda and still deliver on job creation promise? - TheAiPost
Campaign rhetoric will calm down. People will return to their daily lives and America will go back to focusing on its future. Trump's victory, largely led by the voices that got ignored by the previous administrations, provides a clear mandate for the Trump administration. The minor problem: when it comes to technology, the Trump mandate is mostly silent. The major problem:technology strategy by the Trump administration can be at odds with the low-to-medium skilled job creation promise on one hand or lead to decline in American competitiveness on the other hand.
We Must Stop Approaching Artificial Intelligence As a Technology - TheAiPost
We make a major error when we think of AI as a technology, or perhaps as just another technology. This error can turn out to be a costly mistake. Specifically, using the term "technology" to describe artificial intelligence can influence us to ignore the perils of AI, to accept it as we have accepted other technologies, and to incorrectly assume that in the past 3 centuries we have acquired enough experience to deal with technological revolutions. AI is different and hence it should be approached completely differently. Most importantly it should be approached humbly – and with an understanding that this is not something we have dealt before.